Pento Portfolio Strategies LLC . That sunny opinion was echoed by several other Federal Reserve officials who are trying to portray an economy that is on a solid footing. And thus, prepare investors and consumers for an imminent rise in rates.
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In fact, recent data demonstrates that U. S. In addition, tax revenue is down year on year, S& P 5. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manager's index for the manufacturing sector during August fell into contraction at 4. July, which was the lowest reading since February 2. And the recent jobs report was also full of disappointment too, with just 1. August and a decline in the average work week and aggregate hours worked. But our Federal Reserve is not the only central bank making statements troubling to stock and bond prices.
The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, threw all the major averages into a tailspin at a recent press conference by failing to indulge markets with a grander scheme to destroy the euro. When asked if the ECB had talked about extending Quantitative Easing (QE) at its meeting, Draghi had the gall to make the egregiously hawkish announcement that they . This mere absence of a discussion regarding extending or expanding QE caused the Dow to shed nearly 4.
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Friday and spiked the U. S. Ten- year from 1. Indeed, stock and bond prices plunged across the globe. It appears that nothing is ever enough to satisfy global stock and bond markets that are completely addicted to central bank stimulus.
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Draghi has managed to drive rates so low that they are now in effect paying European companies to borrow- -yet markets want even more. That's correct, it's no longer just sovereign debt that offers a negative yield. According to Bloomberg, French drug maker Sanofi just became the first nonfinancial private firm to issue debt at yields less than zero. Also, shorter- term notes of some junk- rated companies, including Peugeot and Heidelberg Cement, are yielding about zero percent. Christopher Whittall of The Wall Street Journal reports that as of September 5th, . This figure represents over 3. Tradeweb. You can attribute this to the fact that global central bank balance sheets have increased to $2.
QE every month. The bond bubble has now reached epic proportions and its membrane has been stretched so thin that it has finally started to burst. As mentioned, not only did U. S. What did Mario Draghi say that was so unsettling to the Global bond market and caused speculators that have been front- running the central bank's bid for the last eight years to panic? He didn't avow to sell assets; he didn't even promise to reduce the 8. All he did was fail to offer a guarantee that the pace of the current bond buying scheme would be increased or extended beyond March 2.
That alone was enough to cause yields around the globe to spike and stock markets to plunge. This is merely the prelude of what is to come once the ECB and Bank of Japan reverse their monetary stimuli; or when the Fed actually begins its rate normalization campaign. Just for the record, the Fed's first hike in ten years, which occurred last December, does not count as a tightening cycle. The bond bubble has grown so immense that if, or when, central banks ever begin to reverse monetary policy it will cause yields to spike across the globe.
But as recent trading volatility has proved, it won't just be bond prices that collapse; it will be every asset that is priced off that so called . The painful lesson will then be learned that negative yielding sovereign debt wasn't at all risk free. All of the asset prices negative interest rates have so massively distorted including; corporate debt, municipal bonds, REITs, CLOs, equities, commodities, luxury cars, art, all fixed income assets and their proxies, and everything in between will fall concurrently along with the global economy.